Aug 26, 2007 - 4:33pm
The full summary of our marginal seat polling across Australia is as follows:
EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AT NEXT ELECTION
• Almost two thirds (62%) of all voters say climate change will affect
their vote at the next Federal election, around one-third (35%) feel it
will have no effect and virtually no-one (3%) will vote to oppose it.
• Importantly it will also influence the vote of 57% of Swinging
voters, with 38% claiming no effect and only 4% voting to oppose it.
• Green voters provide the strongest support 77%, but Coalition provide the weakest (53%).
BETTER PARTY FOR MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE
• Labor is ahead as the better party for managing climate change (42%
vs 20%), but a high proportion believing both parties are the same
• Swinging voters are very likely to believe both parties are
the same (68%) and those with an opinion marginally favour Labor (19%
• Labor rates better on climate change among its own supporters (75%) than the Coalition does among its own voters (62%).
EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENT AT PREVIOUS ELECTION
• Around half of all voters (48%) claim that environmental issues
affected their vote at previous elections and this is still a strong
factor among Swinging voters (41%).
• Very few people voted to
oppose environmental issues (3%) and support was strongest among safe
Labor voters (54%) but weakest among safe Coalition voters (40%).
SUPPORT FOR ENVIRONMENT AT PREVIOUS ELECTIONS AND FOR CLIMATE CHANGE NOW
• Among all voter types, climate change is likely to be a more
important issue at the forthcoming election than environmental issues
have been at previous elections.
• Overall voters, 48% of voters
previously voted to support environmental issues, while 62% will vote to
support climate change at the next Federal election.
difference remains strong among Swinging voters, with 41% having
previously voted to support environmental issues and 57% planning to
vote to support climate change at the next election.
• There is also a strong rise among Labor voters (54% to 70%) and among men (43% to 59%).
SPEED OF ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
• Half of respondents (50%) believe Australia should move quickly on
climate change even if it has a short term impact on the economy while
only 33% believe Australia should move slowly on climate change to avoid
short term damage to the economy.
• Critically half of all Swinging
voters also believe we should move quickly (50%), 31% favouring slow
progress and only 19% unsure.
• Coalition voters were clearly the
most likely to believe Australia should move slowly (55%), with Labor
supporters believing Australia should move quickly (61%) and the Greens
also believing in rapid action (66%).
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES – UNDERSTANDING OF
• Most voters feel they understand what it means for Australia to set
greenhouse pollution reduction targets within the next five years (85%)
and for “all new electricity to come from clean energy” (85%).
• These were fairly consistent among the Labor and Coalition voters.
• Understanding was lower among Swinging voters.
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES – VOTER BELIEFS
• There is consistent support across voters for greenhouse pollution
reduction targets (86%) and all new energy to come from clean energy
• Support is strongest for these policies among Labor voters (targets - 92% and clean energy - 86%).
• Critically it is still strong among Coalition supporters (89% &
76%) and fairly strong among Swinging voters (75% & 70%).
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES – DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MAJOR PARTIES
• On both policies more than 50% of Swinging voters are unable to say
if either the ALP or Coalition will implement the proposed policies.
• 61% of Swinging voters don’t know if the ALP will ensure new
electricity comes from clean sources (and 64% are unsure about the
Coalition). The same holds for greenhouse pollution reduction targets,
with 59% unsure if the ALP will implement them and 58% unsure about the
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES – INFLUENCE ON VOTE
• Both climate change policies are likely to influence the votes of
Swinging voters and all voters in the sample of marginal seats. These
• Setting targets to reduce greenhouse pollution within the
next five years, which will influence 64% of all voters and 58% of
• Ensuring all new electricity comes from clean energy, which will influence 62% of all voters and 55% of Swinging voters.
• Importantly, there is still a large block of people who are not
opposed to these policies, but rather have no opinion about them. Among
Swinging voters, 33% are undecided about clean energy and 32% are unsure
about pollution reduction targets.
• Even around half of Coalition voters will be influenced by targets (54%) and new clean energy (52%).